- Indicated times of posted reports are local time (CET). Please scroll down to bottom for a background presentation of what is at stake in the elections.
Reporting by Michael Streeter and Graham Tearse.
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(03.00): Summary: The definitive results of the elections will be announced on Monday, and you will find them here on Mediapart. But beyond the fine detail, the picture already clear is a resounding defeat for the French Socialist Party in its first nationwide electoral test since coming to power in national government in May 2012.
The victor, in terms of gains, is the mainstream Right opposition party the UMP, along with its centre-right allies. It has managed to achieve this despite internal divisions and the heightening of corruption scandals that have dogged it over recent months.
In the category of French towns with populations of more than 30,000, and also cities with many more inhabitants, the mainstream Right at this hour controls 165, the mainstream Left 91.
The symbolic victor is the far-right Front National, which has made its biggest-ever gains in local elections. As we close down reporting tonight, the party is expected to win some 15 Town Halls around France, to be confirmed later Monday, and which is an all-time record. The party that has based its many years of campaigning as being outside of the political establishment now becomes, however small, a part of it, and its future position will now radically change as a result, notably in its ability - or not - to manage in power and to maintain its position.
The yet to be revised statistics of the French interior ministry show the overall share of the vote as follows: mainstream Right and centre-right with 45.91%, the mainstream Left (including Green parties) with 40%, the far-right with 6.48% and the far-left with 0.06%.
The abstention rate sits at 36.3%.
What are intended to be six-year elections in which voters decide who they believe are the best candidates to manage strictly local issues have become, not for the first time, a plebiscite for change at a national level.
A government reshuffle is without any doubt due between now and Wednesday (the day when the French government cabinet meets for weekly meetings) and President François Hollande is due – according to persistent media reports – to appear on French TV channel TF1 Monday evening to announce, at least in part, the forthcoming changes to his government.
The big headline question is who will be President Hollande’s future prime minister, if indeed he jettisons Jean-Marc Ayrault. Few political observers believe Hollande is likely to make any radical change in his consensual policies as he battles with the severe social consequences of the economic crisis, with the number of jobless now running at 3.3 million (more than 4.9 million when taking part-time employed but full-time job seekers into account), and strong pressure from the business lobby for more free-market liberty, notably relief on taxes and welfare contributions.
Any future prime minister must follow what many perceive as a fudge of both, and it is far from certain that he or she who are potential candidates to be named as the new prime minister, if they have future presidential ambitions, is ready to carry a weight which could scuttle their future.
That leaves the promise of an intriguing, and probably surpising, 48 hours ahead.
(01.00): Results: the Left have lost control of ten towns (and cities) with a population of more than 100,000.
(00.48): The result in Marseille, in which the outgoing conservative UMP party mayor Jean-Claude Gaudin was re-elected for a fourth term of office, sees the city's council made up of 61 seats for the UMP, 20 for the Front National and another 20 for the Socialist Party.
(00.42): While secretary of state Benoît Hamon backtracks on his earlier reported comments that a government reshuffle is due Monday (‘I am not the president’ he Tweets), several French media report that François Hollande is to appear for an interview on the prime time evening news programme on TV channel TF1 on Monday evening, when he is expected to announce a change of government and the name of his new prime minister. The reshuffled government is not expected to be announced in detail before Wednesday, says the political correspondent for daily Le Parisien – because Tuesday is April fools’ day.
(00.30): The Communist Party loses several towns in the Paris region to the mainstream Right, including its former bastion Saint-Ouen, Villejuif (which it held since 1925), Bobigny (which it held since 1920) and Blanc-Mesnil.
(00.27): The Front National is tipped to win a total of between 14 and 15 of these towns with a population of more than 9,000.
(00.25): Interior minister Manuel Vals announces a provisional estimate that the combined Left have lost control of 155 councils in municipalities with a population of 9,000 or more (which naturally include large towns and cities).
(00.20): Agriculture minister Stéphane Le Foll, close to François Hollande, comments: “It’s a defeat and one must by lucid about what happened. The French are waiting for results and I would like things to move more quickly. We must be capable of keeping a certain number of major objectives that we fixed and to adjust the policies that are led in order to respond to all our fellow citizens.”
He is one of a number of ministers avoiding a call for radical change in government policy (see labour minister Michel Sapin’s earlier comments), perhaps indicating already decided cosmetic changes ahead.
(00.10): Result: The Front National takes the town of Mantes-la-Ville (population 19,000), near Paris.
Monday (00.05): Defeated Paris candidate Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet also told her supporters: “We have led an exceptional campaign, but above all I want to say to you: 'Don't be sad. We will have other battles together.'”
(23.50): Defeated Paris candidate Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet attempted to put a brave face on her defeat. The former UMP minister said: “We have gained seats on Paris Council. This evening we have won more than 49% of the vote. I committed to this fight knowing that it was difficult.” And though she has conceded defeat to her socialist rival for Paris city hall, Anne Hidalgo, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet is contesting the outcome in the city's 4th arrondissement (or district), according to her team. The result there gave the socialist candidate victory by 55 votes, but the former minister’s team claim instead that their candidate in that district received 50 more votes than his rival.
(23.47): The UMP's Jean-Claude Gaudin, who easily won a fourth term as mayor of Marseille, said it was a victory for the way he had “brought together” different political strands to defeat his socialist opponent Patrick Menucci. “It was a double rejection, a rejection of President François Hollande and of Patrick Menucci,” he said. Gaudin also attacked the final days of the campaign in the city, claiming that some of the statements and leaflets issues were “odious” and “the worst I have known” in more than four decade of politics.
(23.45): One possible contender for Jean-Marc Ayrault’s job is current interior minister Manuel Valls, widely tipped as the most probable replacement as prime minister. Commenting upon the results late Sunday evening, as is the tradition for French interior ministers after every election, he said: “We must see things face to face, the French who didn’t vote expressed a lack of trust towards the ruling powers. This question is put to all [democratic] republican [forces]. “
“During the second round, the far-left attracted 0.06% [of the vote], the Left 40%, the Right 45.91%, the unaffiliated 6.22%, and 6.84% [went] for the far-right.”
Valls then launched into a more political analysis: “The electorate expressed a keen expectation, discouragement and anger […] Tonight, the French spoke of what they are awaiting in terms of unemployment and purchasing power. But also about security.”
(23.30): With a government reshuffle on the way, Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, speaking tonight said President Hollande would "draw the lessons of this poll, he will do so in the interests of France". Whether that will be a cosmetic operation of musical chairs or a significant re-orientation of policies to appease the Left of his party remains to be seen.
(22.27): UMP senator Jean-Pierre Raffarin, who was prime minister under President Jacques Chirac, said that the Left had been “very very heavily...punished” in the vote. However former minister Laurent Wauquiez , a vice-president of the UMP, warned that it would be a “profound mistake” to think that the local election results represented a “blank cheque for the Right”.
(23.20): A clearly delighted Front National president Marine Le Pen said that winning power in a number of towns across France was only the beginning for the party. “Our aim is to show the people that we can offer a real alternative to the current system. At the moment you have a system where when one of the parties [UMP or PS] loses, the other one wins, even if they don’t deserve it. Our aim is to show there are other ways of doing it,” she told BFMTV. “And in those towns where we didn't win – and in some it was just by a few hundred votes – then we will do better next time and we will win. That is what establishing yourself locally is all about.”
(23.15): Summary: with many results still to be confirmed, the socialists have clearly suffered a resounding defeat nationwide.
So far the far-right Front National party has tonight taken control of nine town halls which, with the party’s early victory in Hénin-Beaumont last weekend brings their tally to ten. They failed to take the southern city of Avignon, where their candidate came in poll position in last weekend's first round, and also the eastern town of Forbach, where the party's vice-president and candidate Florian Philippot had also come first-placed last weekend. Both were won by the Left.
The mainstream conservative UMP opposition party has beaten the socialists in a vast number of municipalities, and emerges as the principal beneficiary by far of the Socialist Party’s debacle.
The socialists have suffered defeats even in towns that they have held for decades, including Angers, which they controlled for 37 years, Chambery (25 years) and, most notably, Limoges, which had been managed by the socialists since 1912. However, they have maintained control of a number of important cities and towns, including Paris, Lyon, Lille, Rennes, Le Mans, Metz, Strasbourg and Dijon.
A government reshuffle, the first since the socialists won the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2012, is now certain and will probably be announced within 48 hours, when Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault is far from certain to retain his post.
(22.58): The Dordogne town of Périgueux, a former right-wing bastion which the socialists won in 2008, is retaken by an alliance of right-wing parties.
(22.50): “It is a defeat for the government, and for the [ruling] majority,” said French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, speaking on Sunday evening. “The message is clear and must be entirely heard. The French [people] must gain back confidence. We have not sufficiently explained that the action for recovery that has been engaged since 2012 was essential for our country."
“We together carry the responsibility of this result […] We must take stock of all the questions, the demands.”
(22.35): In Paris, the head of the UMP's list in the 18th arrondissement (or district), Pierre-Yves Bournazel, said there had been a “collective failure” behind Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet's failure to win the capital from the socialists. He insisted they would take control of Paris “one day”.
The victorious socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo, who becomes the French capital's first woman mayor, thanked her rival Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet on Twitter for having called her to offer “republican congratulations”.
(22.30). Speaking on BFMTV, the UMP president Jean-François Copé described the results as a “stinging rejection” of the current government, and said François Hollande's administration has to make major “economic and political changes”. He added: “The French people have given us tonight a very clear message, in making us the leading party in France.” For him, the results were proof that the efforts the party had made – and were still making – to renew itself over the last two years were “bearing fruit”. Meanwhile his colleague Christian Jacob, head of the UMP's Parliamentary group of MPs, said that the government no longer enjoyed a majority in the country and were now prisoners of other parties, notably “the Greens”, referring to the EELV green alliance which is part of the government.
(22.20): Tensions are high in Fréjus, where the Front National won, and where riot police have been deployed outside their headquarters. The defeated UMP candidate Philippe Mougin blamed the far-right's win on the outgoing mayor Élie Brun, who stood on an independent right-wing ticket. Brun insisted on standing in the second round even though he was in third place behind Mougin and eventual winner David Rachline in the first round. Brun's opponents said this split the anti-FN vote. “It's because of him that the FN won,” said Mougin. “From tomorrow I will get to work trying to win back this town.”
(22.15): Socialist culture minister Aurélie Filipetti comments: "We are in a difficult struggle to put the economic situation right, but the day-to-day [experiences] of our fellow citizens must not be ignored."
(22.12): Socialist party leader Harlem Désir comments : “There is a demand for results, especially about unemployment […] The French are waiting for us to put our political policies into action.”
(22.05): Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, president of the right-wing Gaullist party Debout La République, mocked conservative UMP candidate Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet's failure to become mayor of Paris on a night of otherwise great successes for the Right and reverses for the socialists. “With this blue tide you really have to go some not to win Paris!” he said on Twitter.
(21.55): The unsuccessful Front National candidate at Forbach, party vice-president Florian Philpott, was upbeat about his party's fortunes despite his own defeat. “The FN has never had so many towns in its history, ” he declared.
Robert Ménard, who was elected mayor of the southern town of Béziers on a far-right ticket backed by the Front National, said his win was for the town, which had been under the control of the UMP for 19 years, not him, describing it as a “victory with no losers”. He said: “This evening Béziers has freed itself of 20 years of poor leadership. But it's a happy liberation, a positive one. It's not the victory of one party.”
(21.50): Jean-Vincent Placé, senator and a leading member of the Green alliance party EELV comments: “The message of tonight is the necessity of a [government] reshuffle […] of a total reshuffle of the policies led by François Hollande over the past 18 months. I want a major change of direction, profound, clear, net, as of tomorrow, a response to the French people who have sent the president a terrible disavowal."
(21.40): Result: Exit polls indicate Socialists narrowly lose Toulouse to the UMP, and suggest re-election of the outgoing UMP mayor of Marseille, Jean-Claude Gaudin.
(21.36): Government reshuffle: Secretary of state Benoît Hamon announces a government reshuffle as of Monday. If this happens, it will be the first since the socialist government came to power following François Hollande's election as president in May 2012.
(21.35): Socialist labour minister Michel Sapin comments: “When I see Limoges fall to the Right I tell myself there’s a national message and a local message. It is a local defeat. It needs to be heard. But when you’re in power, it’s not a reason for changing political line.”
(21.26): Result: Socialists lose La Roche-sur-Yon, in the Vendée, after 37 years in control of the town.
(21.25): Result: Socialists lose Limoges, Anglet, Bar-le-Duc, Belfort, Brive-la-Gaillarde, Chambery, but hold on to Besançon and Auxerre.
(20.22): Radical-left Parti de Gauche leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon comments: “The policies of François Hollande, his swing to the Right, his alignment with the [French business confederation] the Medef, his submission to Europe, have produced a disaster. Years of implantation of the Left have been destroyed in a few weeks. The Right finds itself as it was [in the last municipal elections] in 2008."
(21.15): Socialists lose towns of Tours and Montbeliard.
(21.14): Result: Greens win Grenoble.
(21.11) Result: Socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo announces she has won in Paris, beating UMP candidate Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet.
(21.10): Result: Front National take the small southern French town Le Luc (Var département).
(21.07): Early predictions suggest that the Right may have taken control of as many as 100 towns with populations of more than 100,000, according to rolling TV news station BFMTV.
(21.05): Former UMP minister (under Nicolas Sarkozy) Nadine Morano said she was happy at the failure of two leading Front National candidates to win power, in Perpignan and Forbach. “I rejoice at the defeat of Louis Aliot and Florian Philippot,” she told BFMTV. Philippot is a vice-president of the FN while Aliot is FN party president Marine Le Pen's partner as well as being a vice-president.
Meanwhile the UMP mayor of Bordeaux Alain Juppé, a former prime minister, said the results were a “very serious reverse, a slap in the face of those candidates supporting the government”. He also told TF1, referring to the Front National's political colours, that “I note first of all that there is no Navy blue tide”.
(21.00): Front National lose attempt to win Forbach, in eastern France, from socialists.
(20.58): Socialists hold on to Lille (re-election of outgoing mayor and Socialist Party figurehead Martine Aubry), but lose nearby Roubaix, which is won by joint candidature of UMP and centre-right UDI).
(20.55): Socialist Party’s Ségolène Royal, its defeated presidential candidate in 2007 and former partner of François Hollande, comments: “Lots of good things have been done, but the French have not understood. It is necessary to reconstruct the democratic connection.
(20.50): Result: Socialist Party take control of Avignon from the UMP. This was a contest the Front National had an outside chance of winning, its candidate having won the most votes of any in the first round last Sunday.
(20.45): The Right was quick to claim a comprehensive victory in the elections. The UMP president Jean-François Copé, referring to his party's colours, heralded the results as a “blue tide”. In a statement he added: “It's the UMP's first great victory in a local election”. And the UMP leader told TF1 TV that the results sent a clear signal to the ruling Socialist Party and in particular the president. “François Hollande has to change policy,” said Copé, on “tax, the fight against unemployment and insecurity”, also singling out for attack justice minister Christiane Taubira's proposed criminal law reforms which he said “will be a catastrophe” in the fight against crime. The UMP was now the “leading party in France”, he added.
The party's vice-president Brice Hortefeux, a former interior minister and longstanding friend and ally of former president Nicolas Sarkozy, also picked up on the “blue tide” theme, describing it as a result the Right had not produced “in a generation”. He told BFMTV: “Nicolas Sarkozy brought us great success at national level, now we are seeing the start at local level.”
The far-right Front National's president Marine Le Pen also claimed victory for her party which she said marked “a new stage for the FN”. According to her estimations the party would have “perhaps 1,200 municipal councillors and win control of at least six towns”. She added: “The FN has achieved the best results in its history.”
(20.36): Radical-left Parti de Gauche leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon says President François Hollande’s policies have been "a disaster".
(20.35): FN claims victory in Beaucaire, southern France.
(20.30): Result: UMP win control of Saint-Etienne from socialists.
(20.25): “These results are bad for the Left,” comments French government’s official spokeswoman Najat Vallaud-Belkacem. “There was a national dimension in these elections. We hear it.”
Exit polls indicate the Front National takes Fréjus in southern France.
Result: Socialists lose control of Reims.
Result: UMP take Quimper in Brittany from socialists.
Result: The far-right Front National wins the southern town of Béziers.
(20.10) Result: Centre-right candidate François Bayrou wins Pau from socialists.
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What's at stake:
The voting in the second round of nationwide municipal elections on Sunday, which are held every six years, will produce the final makeup of the councils of the 36,681 village-, town- and city halls spread across France, and the mayors who run them.
The first-round vote last Sunday saw some municipal councils elected outright, where candidates polled more than 50% of the vote. Notable among these was the result in the northern, former coal-mining town of Hénin-Beaumont, where the far-right Front National (FN) party gained control.
Today’s contest will decide the political colour of all other municipalities – and which include most major French towns and cities - in a contest between candidates who garnered more than 10% of the vote last weekend (but less than 50%) out of which the winners are those with a majority share of the vote, whatever that is.
The far-right saw a significant surge in support in the just less than 600 communes where it fielded candidates, and the test this Sunday is whether it can carry this support further to win a handful of crucial contests where it faces mainstream party candidates. In several of these, and where it faired poorly last Sunday, the Socialist Party has withdrawn itself from the election in favour of better-placed mainstream party candidates in a tactic to avoid splitting the vote.
The FN is in a favourable position to win the southern towns of Béziers and Fréjus and the eastern town of Forbach. It could also take the southern city of Avignon, where it came top in first-round voting and which would represent a major symbolic victory, although the battle is tight.
The contest in Paris will see a woman mayor elected for the first time, whoever wins what is a two-horse race between Left and Right. The socialist candidate, Anne Hidalgo, is forecast to take the capital after forging an alliance this week with the Greens, which is likely to reverse her narrow second place in last Sunday’s first round result when conservative UMP party opposition candidate Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet came in first place. However, Hidalgo’s victory is not a foregone conclusion and if she loses it would be tantamount to a political earthquake and would put an end to 13 years of socialist rule in the capital.
Meanwhile, at a national level, the Socialist Party is braced for a drubbing. Last week saw its support significantly weakened in a number of its traditional strongholds, notably Lille and Lyon. Neither of these is likely to be lost, but the results could be uncomfortably close. That is also the case in Toulouse, where the contest is particularly tight for the outgoing socialist mayor. But beyond these, the socialists face losing control of some 150 towns around the country, amongst which a large number could be gained by the UMP (and notably Strasbourg). The maverick centre-right leader François Bayrou, standing with backing from the UMP, appeared certain to oust the socialist mayor in Pau, in south-west France.
An important factor for all parties, but more especially for the socialists, is the abstention rate. At the end of the afternoon on Sunday, this was estimated to be between 38% and 38.5%, which would be the highest abstention rate ever recorded in the 56-year existence of France’s Fifth Republic. Last weekend’s first round results saw an abstention rate of 36.45%. Amid the record unpopularity of President François Hollande and his government, the Socialist Party is struggling to mobilise its traditional supporters who are perceived to make up a large portion of those who have refrained from voting. In a damage limitation effort last week, party officials led an energetic campaign to urge its electorate to turn out today.
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