First estimations released at 8p.m. on Sunday evening placed the conservative UMP party and its allies as overall victor in France’s local elections, with a 36% share of votes cast, with the ruling Socialist Party and its allies in second place with 28.5%, and the far-right Front National in third position with 24.5%.
The estimations show the UMP to have achieved a significantly larger score than predicted in pre-election opinion polls, and the Front National (FN) notably less than the pollsters recent forecasts of around 29%.
The radical-left Front de gauche is estimated to have won a 6.5% share of the vote, with the EELV Green party alliance put at 2%.
While the Left appears to have emerged better than expected, the Socialist Party on its own - and not counting the overall score of both it and its allies (diverse left-wing candidates and the PRG party) – is at best estimated to have garnered 25% of the vote, roughly the same score as the far-right, and at worse around 20%. Despite upbeat comments this evening from Prime Minister Manuel Valls that the socialists had, against predictions, staved off a debacle, a score of 20% would represent just that. The combined score of the Right, centre-right and far-right represents a resounding defeat of the Left.
The nationwide poll on Sunday, and next Sunday’s second-round vote in constituencies where no candidate tonight drew more than 50% of votes cast, is to decide the makeup of the councils across France’s 101 départements, equivalent to counties. These are divided per département into about 20 cantons which are small constituencies drawn-up on the basis of population numbers. In all, the number of cantons nationwide total 2,024, and the number of council seats total 4,108.
Out of 43 million registered voters, turnout was estimated at 8.10 p.m. to be 51.3%, notably up on the 44% turnout in the last cantonal elections held in 2011, when the then-president Nicolas Sarkozy’s conservative government was into the fourth year of a five-year term of office.
If the estimations are confirmed as the counting proceeds through the evening, it will be a blow for the Front National (FN) which had been widely predicted in opinion polls and media analysis as poised to claim first place. So confident was the party that it had printed posters at its headquarters in the Paris suburb of Nanterre proclaiming it “France’s leading party”, which were taken down during the evening.
The result will also be an important boost for UMP party leader Nicolas Sarkozy, eyeing a return to office in presidential elections due in 2017, in what is the first nationwide electoral test since he became head of the party last November.
Set against a backdrop of record unemployment and a floundering economy, unpopular public spending cuts, and a disaffection among swathes of the left-wing electorate, illustrated in historically low approval ratings of President François Hollande, the socialists went into the elections controlling 60 départements and hoping at best to stem an outright political disaster. Prime Minister Manuel Valls led a vigorous campaign to encourage turnout among the left-wing electorate, repeatedly warning of the threat of a resounding far-right victory.
“Today, one member of the electorate in two went to vote, it’s more than forecast and I am delighted,” said Valls after the first results emerged on Sunday evening. “But too many French citizens made the choice not to go to the urns. I call upon all of the electorate to go and vote next Sunday. I call for a strong and massive mobilization for the second round.”
22.16: The interior ministry announces initial first round outright victories confirmed in 220 cantons, with 170 for the UMP and centre-right allies, 44 for the socialist and allies, and 6 for the front national.
An IFOP polling institution estimation now puts the score for the combined vote for the conservative UMP party and its centre-right UDI party ally at 29.7%, for the far-right Front National at 26.4% and for the Socialist Party at 20.9%.
According to the estimations of the vote, Front National (FN) leader Marine Le Pen has led her party to its best score ever in local elections. Speaking from the Front national HQ in Nanterre, a west-Paris suburb, she declared: “This massive vote for the FN, which takes root election after election, shows that the French want to recover their liberty. The Front national succeeds in the accomplishment in local elections of largely overtaking its score in the European elections.” In the continent-wide European elections held in May 2014 to elect members of the European Parliament, the Front National came in first place among votes cast in a third of mainland France’s 1,995 cantons (1,328 –compared with a first place for the UMP and its centre-right allies in 472 cantons, and a first place in just 161 cantons for the Socialist Party).
UMP party leader Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday evening ruled out doing any deals with the Front National in the second round, referring to constituencies where UMP and Front National candidates could mathematically win against a socialist in the event that they recommend one or the other to their electorate. Similarly, he dismissed any deals with the Left where a combined UMP-Socialist Party vote could defeat a Front National candidate placed in a lead position for the second round. “There will be no local or national agreement with the leaders of the FN,” said Sarkozy, speaking at the UMP party headquarters on the rue de Vaugirard in south-central Paris.
“If our compatriots have massively turned away from the Left it is because they have the feeling that during these three years they have ceaselessly been lied to,” said sarkozy, referring to the two years and nine months of the Socialist Party’s term in office. “The conditions for a massive switch in favour of the republican Right and centre are brought together,” he added. His reference to the “republican” Right implies that which is respectful of the democratic institutions and principles of the French republic, demarking it from the Front National.
11 p.m.: According French interior ministry calculations announced on Sunday at 11 p.m., after 85% of votes were counted, the mainstream Right, including its majority party the UMP and centre-right allies, have a 36.5% share of votes cast Sunday, while the mainstream Left, led by the socialist party and including the Greens, reaching 35.1%, and the Front National 25.8%, against a turnout of 51.7%.
Socialist Party bigwig Martine Aubry, Mayor of Lille, former minister and former party leader, who sits on the Left of the party and who has adopted the position of an opponent to Prime Minister Manuel Valls’s pro-business policies, on Sunday appealed to the socialist electorate in second round voting next week “wherever a candidate of the Right finds themselves in face of a candidate of the Front National to vote for the [mainstream] Right” because “we consider that the republic must be stronger than anything”.
"I call for a mobilization of the republican electorate everywhere where a republican candidate finds themselves confronted with the Front National,” she said.
So what is the result of this Sunday’s vote, which is just the first of two rounds of voting? The first is, in terms of overall votes cast, that the far-right Front National party has failed to cause the political meltdown that was predicted by by opinion polls which saw it garnering the majority of votes. But while the mainstream Right, and the mainstream Left, have kept their turf, the final count of the result of the second and final round next Sunday will no doubt produce some surprises. The reason for this is that those canton councils elected outright after the first round this Sunday evening, and the voting patterns today, are far from the final word. The winners of the majority of cantons – the local constituencies which will decide the makeup of the councils of France’s départements, or councils - will be decided next Sunday.
These are those where no one single party reached a score of 50% or more of votes cast. Where no one party reached a 50% majority of votes cast, all those who scored a 12.5% share of the registered electorate (as opposed to votes cast), qualify to stand in next Sunday’s poll. Thus it is that the final far-right Front National score, in terms of seats won, is far from clear. An increased turnout next Sunday could profit the Front National like it could other parties, and the contrary is also true.
The socialists have made clear that they will not oppose a mainstream Right candidate if he or she is in a favourable position to beat that of the Front National. The UMP, apparently after seeing its leading score tonight, has said it will not do deals with either, commonly called a “ni-ni” tactic, for ‘neither Front National-neither socialist’.
The socialists have lost a vast ground in local political clout, where until tonight they controlled a majority of département councils. They will undoubtedly be confirmed next week as having become a minority force in local politics. The great debacle that was predicted appears less than announced, but that cannot be interpreted as anything other than a comfortable defeat handed to them by the Right.
But while the conservative Right and its allies - the centre-right parties allied to the UMP - are celebrating their lead against the far-right, tipped by pollsters before the election to garner most of the votes, the significant advance of the Front National in comparison to previous local elections – their best-ever score in such polls - remains a victory of sorts for the FN, which tonight represents not far off a third of votes cast. The results of the second and final round on March 29th may yet surprise.
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